Reference Letters


Post Monsoon Everest Forecast
November 24, 2003
Michael Fagin
West Coast Weather
Redmond, Washington USA

Dear Michael;
I wanted to thank you for the forecasts that you provided to my climbing group this past October and November 2003. I have been climbing in the Himalayas since 1987 and have been on the summit of Everest four times so certainly I have seen a lot of weather forecasts.

Our expedition took place in a somewhat ‘uncharted’ season on Everest, the post-monsoon. The weather during the autumn is significantly less observed than in the spring. Your forecasts were excellent and that is not an easy task when forecasting from October 1 till November 1. Not only was I impressed with these forecasts but also our climbing Sherpas’ found your forecasts very valuable and that was the first time they liked an “outsider’s” forecasts.

Furthermore, the format was concise and easy to read. What I really appreciated was the fact that you were available to talk to me one on one by satellite telephone. The sunspot activity this fall made it difficult getting data transmission (email) at Base Camp, thus being able to have our weather briefings on the phone with you was very critical. Our plans are to return to Mt. Everest in the fall of 2004 for another summit bid. So please reserve us on your forecast calendar.

Sincerely,
Wally Berg


Mount Everest Spring Forecast

The climbing season of May of 2003 brought some very harsh weather conditions over the Mt. Everest region. Summit winds during a several day stretch exceeded 120 mph (about 60 m/s). When the winds were not howling at 120 mph, the average summit winds were between 40 to 50 mph (about 20 to 30 m/s) Combined with summit temperatures –13 F (-25 C) the average wind chill factor was –48.5F (-55.5 C). This is using the new official wind chill factor, which is lower than the old one. Using the old wind chill table the wind chill factor was at –75 F.

We must congratulate all the people that made it to the summit this season. I was privileged to provide forecasts for Jagged Globe (UK), and Alpine Ascents International (USA) for their successful summits. Here is a quote from Robert Anderson who was the expedition leader for the Everest Jagged Globe team in 2003:

“Michael, a quick note but a big thank you for your weather reports when we were on Everest. I'd say of all the forecasts that we received your forecasts were the closest to the reality we experienced.”
Robert Anderson


Mt. Hunter, Alaska
Steve Swenson
July 20, 2003

Dear Michael;

Thanks for your custom forecast for our summit attempt of Mt. Hunter in Alaska this past spring. It seems like my schedule these days is such that I do not have time to go places in North America and sit around for weeks waiting for good climbing weather. For Mt Hunter our request was simple, “give us a 4 day seam of dry weather for Alaska in May.” As you know it was snowing there the early part of the month and we delayed our planned departure several times based on information from you that indicated continued bad weather. We were patient, knowing that being flexible would pay off and then in the middle of the month you provided information that was not yet available on the free weather services that indicated a 4 day seam of dry weather was coming. With that information, my climbing partner and I jumped on a plane to go to Anchorage and then on the bush plane that took us onto the glacier. Just as you predicted, sunny weather prevailed for over 4 days.

As you know I do a lot of mountain climbing all over the world and I am very interested in using your custom forecasts next time I go climb in Asia. Trying to pick the right weather in which to commit to a major route is probably the most difficult aspect of any expedition, and the weather information that is available locally in Asia is usually of very limited value. Having additional reliable weather information from you would be very valuable.

Michael thanks for the great service you provide. You were able to give forecasts for the exact region I was in including winds, freezing levels, and all the relevant weather information a climber needs.

Sincerely,
Steve Swenson



Trek In Nepal
Jeroldine Hallberg, Washington
March 31, 2003

I’m writing you regarding the forecasting services of Michael Fagin of Washington Online Weather. I have been a client since the start of Michael’s business in 1996. As a climb leader with the Seattle Mountaineers I rely heavily on Michael’s forecast. His pinpoint forecasts help make my trips successful.

The main thing I would like to bring up about his service is his offer to provide forecasts in 1997 of Nepal’s Annapurna region while my group did a trek and climb there. Michael provided us with forecasts prior to the trip so we would have an idea of the type of weather we could expect there. Once we were there Michael sent us weekly forecasts via email which we checked while we were at various Internet Cafes. Frankly we were amazed at his accuracy. To our disappointment, Michael was accurate with his forecast of cloudy weather and precipitation on and off. We were snowed off of our objective - Singhu Chuli -- but it was sure handy to have that information.

Based on my experience with Michael Fagin Mountain forecasting in the Pacific Northwest and in the Nepal region I know Michael can provide accurate forecasts that would greatly assist climbers in the Mt. Everest and K2 region. To have Michael’s pinpoint forecast available to climbers at basecamp would greatly assist climbers in achieving their climbing goals. This would be an invaluable service that these climbing parties will grow to rely on.

Sincerely,
Jeroldine Hallberg


Washington State Forecast
Doctor Mike McNutt, Washington
March 28, 2003

Mike Fagin has provided me with weather forecasting service for more than four years. I cannot emphasize strongly enough how valuable this service has been. I am out mountaineering typically 100 to 120 days a year, and cannot afford to have my climbing time wasted by venturing into marginal weather. Mike has completely cured this problem by giving me “microsector” weather forecasts which have been amazing in their accuracy. Moreover, he stays in constant communication with me at my request, even when I am on the road, modifying and fine-tuning forecasts in whatever state or region I am launching a climb. I have never seen Mike drop the ball on weather forecasts or in getting information to me. Above all, he has been a very likable guy to work with, and is extremely enthusiastic about discussing the art and science of weather.

I understand that Mike is now applying for a job forecasting weather for high altitude climbing. I must confess I have not done any real altitude climbing (personal highest 20,000 feet in Ecuador). However, climbing in the Andes, I got a sense of how vital good weather information may be to this type of climbing over and above lower elevation mountaineering. Given the excellent professional relationship I have had with Mike, I would not hesitate to commit my life on an altitude climb based on his weather forecasts.

In short, Mike Fagin has my strongest possible recommendation based upon his weather forecasting work with me. If you have any further questions, I would be happy to talk with you – please call me at my office

Sincerely,
Mike McNutt

Forecast For Israel
Sarah Newmark, Washington
March 27, 2003

Dear Michael,
We have just returned from Israel, and I wanted to write and thank you so much for providing Zavie and me with the weather forecast that we requested. We were told by the organizer of our group that the days in Israel would be relatively warm by mid-March though the nights would still be very cool. I was in Israel once before in late February, and based on that experience, I thought that the days would be in the 60s and that I’d be able to get away with packing lightweight clothing. However, after reading your forecast of much cooler-than-normal days plus a chance of snow showers in Jerusalem (!), I figured I better pack a few extra sweaters. I was so glad I did, as I never took the sweaters off!

While I was gone for two weeks, I understood that you could only forecast for the first seven days. Frankly, I was very impressed that you nailed the forecast trend of cool and wet during that entire first week there (10,000 miles away!). While I was kind of hoping your forecast would be wrong, I came prepared with umbrella and closed in walking shoes. The weather was very similar to Seattle in the winter, cool and wet, as you forecasted. The most popular items purchased there by other members of our group were umbrellas and gloves!

I understand that your firm is considering doing some forecasting for the Mt. Everest region. Based on my experience with your service and my knowledge of your own passion for hiking and mountain climbing, I would expect that you would be able to provide an excellent forecast for that region or for anywhere in the world.

Again, thanks for providing us this “complimentary” forecast as a friend of the family. We are neither mountain climbers nor members of your service, and we truly appreciated your invaluable assistance on our trip! Our “compliments” to you!

Thanks again!

International Forecasts
Stephen W. Broscheid, Washington
March 25, 2003

Dear Mike;

I understand that you are considering bidding on doing weather forecasting for Mt. Everest and/or K2. I would like say, based on my experiences with your mountain weather forecasting; I think you would be the perfect person for this job.

Here is my climbing background. I have been high attitude mountain climbing since 1978 from Island Peak in Nepal (20,000’ plus), peaks in the Hindu Kush in Afghanistan (probably first ascents). Also, on the more mundane level, I have climbed the local peaks of the Western States: Mt. Rainier, Mt. Adams, Mt. Whitney, to name a few.

I know from firsthand experience that your accurate forecasts for Mt. Rainier has saved my butt many times. In May of 2002, our group was going to climb Rainier. Based on your forecast of a strong storm moving in, we stayed warm and dry in Seattle. Sadly, a group of climbers died in this nasty storm trying to climb the very technical Liberty Ridge on Mt. Rainier.

There were several other times where your Rainier forecast was the deciding factor for us. Once a party from Alabama got caught at the top and your forecast for that weekend was basically to stay away from Rainier. Again, we relied on your forecast, and it saved us.

Frankly, there were numerous other times we used your updates for Rainier and you have never been wrong. I’m not, saying that you are perfect all the time, but I can’t remember your forecasts being inaccurate. In fact, if Mt. Rainier National Park made your forecasts available to all climbers, it would make it a much safer place to climb. There have been times that I have used your phone updates at Camp Muir (10,000’) and have decided to bail out on the climb.

Mike, good luck on expanding your mountain weather forecasting endeavors. Given the fact that you are a mountaineer, an expert high altitude weather forecaster, I think you would be perfect for assessing the weather for climbing expeditions on any of the major mountain peaks.

Sincerely,
Stephen W. Broscheid


Washington State Forecasts
C. Wallace, Washington

I understand you are considering engaging Mr. Mike Fagin, and I would like to give you some feedback on the quality of his mountain weather forecasting services.

I have subscribed to Mr. Fagin's Washington Online Weather service since its inception and have found it of great benefit. I have been climbing in the Northwest for about 30 years, and am a climb leader with the Seattle Mountaineers, a large outdoor club. I lead 10 to 15 trips per year for the club.

Weather is a big issue here because of our marine climate. As trip leader, I must make the final decision about where to take a climbing party or whether to go at all. My summit success rate has increased dramatically since the advent of WOW. On Mike's advice, we often divert from the planned objective to an area where better conditions are expected, and sometimes we just stay at home. The number of times I have had to slog out in a downpour without getting anywhere near the summit have been greatly reduced thanks to Mike.

Before WOW, I had to rely on the National Weather Service and radio/TV weather. Certainly, those are fine professional services, but Mike Fagin directs his forecasts specifically to the mountains. He has studied local weather patterns and so can give pinpoint forecasts for different areas of our mountains. This is especially helpful for our high peaks like Mt. Rainier and Mt. Adams. The conditions there can be extreme and can be quite different from the weather at sea level, or even at 5,000'. Now that I am accustomed to the WOW service, I would not think of approaching a high climb without getting a reading from Mike.

Additionally, Mike appends numerical confidence ratings to each forecast, which is very helpful for decision making. He also prefaces each forecast with a review of weather patterns. That puts the forecast in context and helps my novice's understanding of what's going on up in the sky.

Mike really loves weather forecasting. He is always ready to discuss conditions in detail and to give updates. Sometimes, he will put a last minute forecast on his phone message service so we can check in via cell phone while driving to the trailhead. Would that all professional services we buy were delivered with that degree of dedication!

I think you would be very well served if you engaged Mike Fagin. He understands weather, he understands the mountain environment and the special needs of climbers.

Please feel free to contact me if you would like further input.

Sincerely,
C. Wallace
West Coast Weather, LLC dba Washington Online Weather
Redmomd, Washington 98052 USA   (425) 869-1847   Toll Free (877) 969-4786   michaelf@wowweather.com
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